Khaled Hawari writes a history of crypto.

Fifty is the line, and the name is the argument

The Institute for Supply Management publishes a diffusion index. It is not a price and not a growth rate. It is a count of how many respondents said a thing improved rather than deteriorated, and fifty is the point at which those two groups are exactly the same size. Above fifty the thing is expanding. Below fifty it is contracting. The number says nothing at all about magnitude, only about direction, and that is precisely what makes it useful.

Crypto has spent fifteen years crossing that line. Not once, and not all at the same time: capital, attention, credit, belief, users, developers and regulation each crossed it more than once, in both directions, and rarely in step with each other or with the price. A period that looks in hindsight like an obvious peak was, to the people inside it, a period in which several of those series were still rising and one had quietly turned.

That is the whole editorial position. Every piece on this site should be able to answer three questions: what was expanding, what was contracting, and who could tell at the time. The third one is usually where the piece actually is, because the honest answer is normally that almost nobody could, including several people whose later accounts say otherwise.

The number is also, by now, close to a joke in this particular corner of the internet. That is fine. A name that works on two levels is a better name than one that works on one, and the site is not going to explain the pun again anywhere else.

Crypto history is badly documented, and that is the opportunity

Try to check almost anything from before 2015 and you will run into the same three problems. Primary sources have quietly disappeared: a press release that half the academic literature cites now returns a 404, and the only surviving copy of its text is a block quote in a paper about something else. Narratives have been rewritten by their participants, usually in a direction that improves them. And the confident numbers everyone repeats often trace back to nothing: a figure that appears in a peer-reviewed paper with no citation, then in a hundred articles citing the paper.

So the rules here are strict, and they are enforced by the build rather than by good intentions.

Nothing is invented. No date, no figure, no quote and no claim about what a named person said or did unless it can be checked. Where a number cannot be sourced it is cut rather than softened, because a hedged invented number is still an invented number.

Where a claim is contested, the contest is named. Not "some say", which is a way of avoiding the work. The actual parties, what each of them concluded, and the documents.

Where a source is dead, the piece says so and says what it said. A dead link is itself a fact about the record, and quietly dropping it hides the thing that most needed pointing out.

There are no prices and no forecasts. This site quotes no market capitalisation, states no view on what anything is worth, and makes no prediction. Everything here is written with hindsight the people involved did not have, which is a reason for humility rather than a licence to extend the line. Seewhat this site is not.

Why a tax and financial consultant writes this

Khaled Hawari is a tax and financial consultant in Ottawa, Ontario. He founded Kodelytics Inc., an Ontario corporation doing technical delivery work for agencies, and KNA Group, which runs the finance function for incorporated Canadian companies. He studied commerce at the University of Ottawa and at Carleton University, and works in English, French and Arabic.

He goes by Kal. Kal Hawari and Khaled Hawari are the same person, and both forms turn up on the client side of an engagement, which is the only reason the distinction is worth a sentence at all.

The route into this subject was not enthusiasm. It was that clients started arriving with exchange exports nobody could reconcile, and reconciling them turned out to require knowing what a given platform had actually been doing in a given year: which of its internal transfers were real, what its withdrawal halt in some particular month had meant, whether a token had been distributed or sold, and what the contract had done as opposed to what the announcement had promised. Answering those questions properly means reading primary sources, and reading primary sources for long enough turns into knowing the history.

It also means having repeatedly found the received account to be wrong. That is the specific thing this site is for. A great deal of what everybody knows about crypto history is a press release that was never checked, and the correction is usually sitting in a court filing, a mailing list archive or a contract that has been public the whole time.

The financial work is onkhaledhawari.ca, and it stays there. Nothing on ISM50 is guidance for a reader's own situation, and this site does not write about what anybody owes anyone.

The other four

Four sites, four subjects, one person. They do not overlap on purpose: the split is what keeps each of them the answer to its own question rather than two of them competing for one.